Cuba a year from getting new, non-Castro president

Cuba's First Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel, left, stands with President Raul Castro during the May Day parade in Havana, Cuba. Photo / AP

If all goes as expected, in exactly one year President Raul Castro will hand responsibility for Cuba's faltering economy and ageing, disaffected population to a little-known, 57-year-old Communist Party official.

It will be the first time since its founding in 1959 that the Cuban state has not been led by a member of the Castro family. First Fidel Castro, then his younger brother Raul, wielded near-absolute power as head of the Government and the ruling Cuban Communist Party. As founders of the modern Cuban army, each brandished unquestioned authority as the nation's top military man.

The end of 85-year-old Raul Castro's second five-year term will instantly push Cuba's autocratic, single-party system onto unknown ground.

First Vice-President Miguel Diaz-Canel, a stocky, laconic engineer by training who began his career as a provincial bureaucrat, is expected to assume only one of Raul Castro's roles - the presidency. Castro plans to remain first secretary of the Cuban Communist Party, a potentially more powerful position, until at least 2021.

"We're entering a new stage, one that requires adaptation. We're walking on new territory," retired diplomat and academic Carlos Alzugaray said. "There's no reason to think this transition can't be, more or less, positive."The Cuban military, meanwhile, became the nation's top economic power during Raul Castro's decade as President and its top generals are expected to be less deferential to Diaz-Canel than they were to the Castro brothers.

The change at the top comes amid profound economic and diplomatic uncertainty. In 2016, Cuba saw its first recession in 23 years; Fidel Castro's death; and the election of Donald Trump, who has promised to reverse President Barack Obama's opening with the island.

Ordinary Cubans are uncertain about life in a time of unprecedented change, with a basically unknown figure following nearly six decades of the Castros' leadership.

"Whoever emerges is the same to me, I don't care," said Joan Rafael, a 40-year-old entertainer. "We have to see if this all changes. If it changes, I'm fine with whoever it is."

Cuba calls its system a unique form of democracy that allows citizens to freely express their views and influence government actions within the limits of a single-party system. Critics label it a one-man dictatorship that represses anyone who dares to protest.

The system in reality allows a limited range of expression and action, like complaining to officials about trash collection or bureaucratic inefficiency, while prohibiting any form of political organisation or expression outside strict boundaries defined by Castro and his inner circle.

Every two-and-a-half years, thousands of neighbourhoods nationwide select representatives to local boards overseeing municipal affairs. A handful of dissident candidates have been defeated and publicly denounced. Every five years, a government body selects thousands of the local representatives to run for the National Assembly and those hand-picked candidates then go to a public vote. The roughly 500-member National Assembly then chooses the 30-member Council of State and the president.

The Cuban system theoretically allows any council member to become president, although many believe the outcome is predetermined in favour of Diaz-Canel.

As Castro's retirement date approaches, Diaz-Canel has assumed an increasingly high profile with visits to Cuba's most important allies, including Russia, China and Venezuela. Still, his speeches rarely vary from time-tested Communist dogma, and he frequently punts when questioned about his country's future, saying he's not qualified to answer.

"I think he could take on the challenges that Raul leaves him, that is, if he really takes on power," economist Omar Everleny Perez said.

The low wattage of Diaz-Canel's recent unsmiling and monotone appearances has surprised longtime observers who remember him as a high-energy, charismatic provincial party official. Many speculate he is trying to avoid the fate of numerous Fidel Castro deputies who built high public profiles, then were sidelined without explanation.

Diaz-Canel doesn't speak to the non-state media.

In recent appearances on state television, Diaz-Canel has placed particular emphasis on the legacy of Fidel Castro, who died on November 25, last year.

"He was one person when he was a mid-level official and he's another one now," said a European diplomat with long experience in Cuba, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to discuss the matter with the press. "He's become completely closed-off and discreet."